Model Portfolio ahknaten:KAI

A sign in toronto. Are you bullish or bearish?

Quality of Life

Canadian and American Politics

I’m afraid to talk about this. I’ll try to stay neutral in fear of getting trampled by everyone.

Ask a Canadian:

Last week, Canada voted to keep Prime Minister Harper in power. He has a ‘minority government’, so unlike other democratic countries, in Canada not one party/person gets absolute power to break global laws. The ‘Conservatives’ gained seats, the ‘Liberals’ lost seats and the ‘NDP’ and ‘Green Party’ gained seats. Keep in mind fellow Americans that ‘Conservatives’ in Canada are different than conservatives in America. In the USA things are much more polarized by religion in politics – not so in Canada. But, although Canada had a democratic election, they also had a very low voter turnout. That low turnout might indicate that they are ‘content’ with government; they feel that their voice doesn’t matter, or they’re too busy fighting bears in their backyards. Perhaps it just indicates that they care more about the American election? In fact, the Canadians for some odd reason chose to broadcast the Prime Minister’s debate at the same time as the Americans had their vice president debate – and quite a few Canadians chose to watch the American one, instead of the Canadian one. Why the politicians/TV networks chose to do such a thing, I’m not sure, but it seems from my perspective that Canadians are more concerned with the election down south than their own. This past weekend I went to a Madonna concert in Toronto (excellent concert), and during the concert she made a promo for Obama. The crowd went nuts. Remember, it’s primarily a CANADIAN crowd. I would have expected a strong positive/negative reaction from an American crowd. But For the most part, the crowd was cheering exuberantly for Obama. If a picture of Harper, Dion, May or Layton went up on the screens, would anyone have even noticed? Even in the Canadian press, I keep hearing about how the Liberal party lost the election and how they wish to find Obama to replace Dion. So, my fellow Americans… the Canadians may poke fun at you, but next time you run into ‘that one from Canada’ or a fellow ‘hockey mom’, go ahead and ask them what they thought of the election. They just might respond, “Ah… the election is in a few weeks, eh”?

BTW, in the interest of neutrality, I tried finding a link for McCain for Canadian Prime Minister, but I was unable to find one.

Long and Short

LONG
Madonna. After 50 years, she’s still dancing like a 21 year old.
Political humour. Both Obama and McCain made jokes at a luncheon. Bravo.
The market. It hasn’t dropped more than 500 points EVERY day.
Those who wish bears would die instead of people.

SHORT
The bridge between Windsor and Detroit – the construction is awful. Prepare to get lost.
The market. It hasn’t gone up more than 500 points EVERY day.
Goldfish. A dead goldfish can vote in Illinois.
Those who wish people would die instead of bears.

The Academic Frontline

Are you curious for an overview of Obama/McCain and business items? Click here...
How about a discussion on the bailout and election? Click here...
Or more about the bailout? Click here...

Was I Right or Wrong?

This can be egotistical, or not. This week I'll look at this old blog that I wrote on Aug. 3rd ‘07. In it, I highlighted NOK and gave a target price of $33.

I was right:
It hit a high of $42.

I was wrong:
It’s at $17 now.

So I’m happy, but I’ll let you make the call if if I’m right or wrong.

Quant of Life

THE LONG STORY

Here's my quant 'slice of life' with regards to Industrial stocks.

I have an Industrial sector portfolio and in the past 12 months it is down -46%. During the same time, the XLI is down -38%. It’s not beating the index, so I am not happy. Since inception the fund is up 125% and the XLI is up 21%. Although I’m sad about the recent year, overall I am happy.

In general, I am bullish on Industrials. Although my portfolio has about 20-30 stocks, I have a list of 50 stocks that I like. This is a list of stocks that I may or may not put in my virtual portfolios. I'm not going to give the stocks on that list, but I'll show you an idea of what I like.

Here are a few notable stocks in my current Industrial sector portfolio:

I won’t list any, as the current market has created some rotations with my holdings.

Here is the industry breakdown of that list:

This gives an idea of the market cap breakdown of that list:

Comparing the % weighting in the industries with the market, this graph shows which sectors I am overweighted in:

If I use a bit of qualitative analysis, what do I feel should be overweighted and underweighted in Industrials?

OVERWEIGHT

Professional Services, Trading Companies & Distributors, Electrical Equipment, Machinery.

UNDERWEIGHT

Road & Rail, Marine.

My diversified fund list has 10 (20% of 50) Industrial stocks in it. The fund is up 1% vs. the S&P 500 this year and 127% since inception. I am happy, but I wish I could do better this year.

Here are the stocks: ADG AW CR FRPT GPX NOC PRPX SCS TRS USHS

I bought:

CR at $19 in Oct. '08. It's at $19.
NOC at $55 in Apr. ‘05. It's at $45.

My global-non-US fund list has 4 (8% of 50) Industrial stocks in it. The fund is up 276% vs. the S&P 500 this year and 225% since inception. I am happy.

Here are the stocks:
DSWL KHD PHG TKS

I bought:

KHD at $14 in Sep. '03. It's at $18.
TKS at $10 in Oct. '08. It's at $8.

THE SHORT STORY

I have a short fund that shorts Discretionary, Staples, Financials, Industrials and Materials. In that fund, Industrials take up 22% of the fund. The fund is up 248% vs. the S&P 500 this year and 373% since inception. I am happy.

Here are the stocks:
ENOC ERII ESLR FTEK HIL HOKU IEP OVEN TITN

I shorted:
ENOC at $26 in Feb. '08. It's at $7. Yay.
ESLR at $12 in Dec. ‘05. It's at $3. Yay… it rose to $19 and dropped.
FTEK at $34 in July ‘07. It's at $12. Yay.
HIL at $19 in Sep. '08. It's at $10.
HOKU at $5 in Feb. ‘07. It's at $6. Yay… it rose to $15 and dropped.
IEP at $86 in May '08. It's at $33. Yay.
OVEN at $7 in Dec. '04. It's at $5. Yay… it rose to $27 and dropped.
TITN at $23 in Sep. '08. It's at $14.

Here are some stocks that I still haven't covered.
AKNS -53%, ASTI -37%, AMSC -7%

My LTCM fund list has 4 (8% of 50) Industrial stocks in it. The fund is up 274% this year vs. the S&P 500 and 229% vs. the S&P 500 since inception. I am happy.

Here are the stocks:
AKNS ENOC ESLR HOKU

I shorted:
AKNS at $6 in Feb. '08. It's at $3. Yay.
ENOC at $26 in Feb. '08. It's at $7. Yay.
ESLR at $14 in May '06. It's at $3. Yay… it rose to $19 and dropped.
HOKU at $6 in Aug. '08. It's at $6.

Here are some stocks that I have yet to cover:
UQM -61%

PEOPLE become bears and ATTACK!! PEOPLE attack political BEARS!!!!

In case you missed it, PEOPLE are attacking those who get attacked by BEARS. A few weeks ago a man was attacked by a bear and he fought back. The bear and cubs had to be killed. Now, the animal lovers are upset that he defended his life and killed a bear. Perhaps they wish that he would have cuddled the bear poo like Timothy Treadwell and died?

But perhaps folks that complain above, should really complain about people who kill political bears. At Western Carolina University, a bear was shot dead and then some campaign signs were placed around it. Sick. Someone out there lacks a productive non-violent creative mind. Animal protestors, leave the man who was attacked by a bear and lived, and complain about stuff like this instead.

So there you go. Have fun!

-kai

Fun at the Toronto Stock Exchange...