Model Portfolio wildmap:GRQ/M

The technical ducks continue to suggest a major rally peak is being formed around Dow 10,000, with rallies this week all run on decreasing volume that reads like a countdown to a rocket launch - 7 (billion), 6, 5, 4, and with Friday's positive close landing with a 3 handle. The current market remains the most technically fractured market I have encountered in the 20 years I've been trading. Many former leadership indexes badly lagged as a handful of indexes made new 52 week highs recently, and this splintered state can be seen around the world - UK leading while China, Japan, and Germany lag - and in the commodity sector, with silver and oil both failing to confirm recent new highs for gold. Volume on the recent advance was pitiful, with fewer and fewer stocks making new highs as October and November progressed. The MACD indicator continues to trend in a downward stair-step of lower highs and lower lows while the stock indexes were making higher highs and higher lows. These divergences are a classic text-book example of a war being waged with the generals marching up the hill and the troops refusing to follow. Risk of a harsh drop remains extreme. A massive multi-year bear market is likely to start once the current rally exhausts itself, which makes the current struggles near Dow 10,000 massively important, for it may be many years - maybe decades - before we get to experience a five digit Dow. It is wise to remember that bulls make money, bears make money, while pigs get slaughtered. The current sideways churn moves as the market completes its top offers near-perfect exit points to take profits so that you don't find yourself scoffing at the trough when the day of reckoning lands for real.

Have a great weekend!

Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist, AlphaKing.com